Amendment 3's Potential Impact on Rental Housing

New Analysis Estimates Amendment 3's Potential Impact on Florida Rental Housing Costs

This analysis was commissioned in partnership with the Florida Housing Coalition, Florida Apartment Association, Miami Homes for All, and the Florida Policy Project.

Quick Reference: Full Study | FAA Statement | Key Findings

On September 23, 2026, FAA, FHC, Miami Homes 4 All, and the Florida Policy Project released a statewide analysis, conducted by tax expert Jared Walczak, examining how Amendment 3, a constitutional amendment on this November’s ballot, could affect property taxes on rental homes across Florida. The analysis estimates annual property tax bills for an average FL apartment could rise over $400 in 2028 if Amendment 3 passes and local governments raise property tax rates to make up for the lost revenue. This would have a trickle-down impact on how much Florida renters are paying each month. 

If Amendment 3 passes, non-school property tax collections are projected to reduce statewide by 20–23% — an estimated $8.7 billion annually by 2029, rising to nearly $11.8 billion by 2032.

Local governments would then face three options:

1. Reduce spending,
2. Raise property tax rates, or
3. Raise other taxes and fees.

Many [local governments] are expected to rely on a combination of all three. This analysis looks at what could happen to rental housing costs if local governments cover the full loss by raising property tax rates alone.

Key Findings

• Amendment 3 lowers property taxes for homeowners and could shift the cost to
  renters. If local governments raise property tax rates to cover the difference, the average
  Florida apartment unit’s annual property tax bill could go up $406 (14.8%) in 2028, and
  $554 (15.75%) by 2031. For a typical 200-unit apartment community, that’s about
  $81,000 more in property taxes each year in 2028, rising to about $109,000 by 2031.
• Renters of single-family homes could be hit harder: an average $1,081 (14.6%)
  increase in 2028, rising to $1,471 (15.4%) by 2031. About one in four of Florida’s renters
  live in a single-family home.
• Renters would likely end up paying most of this through higher rent. Research on
  past tax increases show landlords typically pass at least 60% of the cost on to tenants, and
  often nearly all of it over time. A $400 tax increase on an apartment could mean about
  $240 more in rent per year; for a Tampa single-family rental, about $780 more.
• Statewide, that could be up to $1.61 billion in added property taxes on rental homes in 2028, growing to $2.19 billion by 2031.
• The impacts would vary by local government. In Tampa, average yearly property taxes could rise $758 per apartment and $1,329 per single-family rental in 2028. Other areas could see increases as well: Miami-Dade (+$291 per apartment), Orlando (+$358), Fort Lauderdale (+$504), and Pinellas (+$549).
• Impacts to affordable housing. Many income- and rent-restricted rental homes don’t qualify for property tax exemptions, so owners often can’t pass cost increases on to residents — which can limit their ability to make repairs and capital improvements. Most of Florida’s affordable rental homes aren’t part of a formal affordable housing program at all; they’re just naturally lower-priced, and those could see rent increases as well.
• New home and apartment building could slow as local governments respond differently and on different timelines, creating uncertainty for builders about future tax rates, fees, and services. More than 1.7 million renter households in Florida are already spending over 30% of their income on housing.

FAA Statement Regarding Amendment 3:

It is important to note the current ballot proposal does not provide a direct property tax reduction for rental housing. Instead, this proposal limits future property tax increases for non-homestead properties by reducing the assessed value cap from 10 percent to 5 percent annually beginning in 2027. 

While this is a positive policy change, we remain concerned local governments will ultimately find other ways to shift the revenue burden to commercial properties, including rental housing. This could include higher fees for services, increases in impact or mobility fees, or raising the ad valorem tax rate. All of these potential increases would have a direct and negative impact on housing affordability in Florida. 

Overall, FAA supports efforts to improve Florida's tax system, but policymakers at the state and local level should ensure potential reforms do not create unintended consequences for renters and housing providers, which could further strain housing affordability across the state.